Kogod Finance Group

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Consumer Goods sector report 2/20

PG continues to look good, as it is trading near its 52 week high but still undervalued by Morningstar. Interestingly, while PG's Pampers (for babies) diaper brand is highly successful here in the US so is their Adult diaper brand, Attento (only sold in Japan), yet PG is seeking a buyer for that brand because it does not fit into their strategy of brands being able to expand on a global scale (hello, baby boomers?!?!). PG's Gillette is also in the midst of releasing their 'hottest' razor yet, the 'Fusion Power Phantom' for men. Consumer tests show that the Fusion Power Phantom is significantly preferred over their Gillette M3 Power and comes with a money-back satisfaction guarantee--so, gentlemen give it a try and help sales. Perhaps we should buy soon?

As PG would be a good steady growth company, it might be time to look into a high speculative growth consumer goods co: Hansen Natural (HANS). What do they make? Energy drinks, natural sodas, juices and smoothies. Their most successful product, bringing in 95% of their operating income in '50, is Monster Energy Drink. With Monster such a huge success, the company is focusing less on their natural soda products. Their growth has been near 40% per year for the past few years and is expected to be a modest 30% in 2007. They have recently entered into some more distribution agreements, such as with Anheuser-Busch, which should make their products more available and increase sales. The company is also in good financial health, but not leveraged, they have almost no debt and a big pile of cash--which will help with expansion or acquisition. The stock is risky, but it might be a good buy for half a year or so. Take a look at the Morningstar report, try a Monster drink, and consider it.

Toyota (TM) is also up about 2% from when we bought it.

Also, earlier this year we were asked to evaluate KFG's existing holdings in our sectors. Among the few consumer goods stocks is Cherokee, bought last year. This one, although we didn't quite understand what the company did at first, is a keeper (up almost 17% since we bought it). Cherokee(CHKE) basically markets and licenses the trademarks and brands the company owns for clothes, home furnishings, and other products. Cherokee was rated as one of the top 10 small cap stocks by TheStreet.com earlier this month

Tiffany's (TIF), whether considered consumer goods or services is also a keeper. Although we lost with it before we're back in the money (up almost 4% since we bought it) and it looks good for now. I'm not the only one who loves those little blue boxes, Tiffany's is a very valuable brand. Although they struggled recently by pricing too low their line of 'Return to Tiffany's' silver jewelry such that the stores were overrun with teenage girls almost to the point of alienating their older and richer clientele--they seem to have found the balance. They have raised prices on their silver jewelry, before the brand was cheapened and are consistently able to pass the higher prices of their inputs (commodities silver, gold, diamonds) on to the customer. Growth is also in the future, as Tiffany's plans to open 17 new stores in 2007, 10 of which are overseas, and same store sales have been increasing by 6%. TIF is a pick on TheStreet.com and is rated a solid 2.5 hold on Yahoo Finance.

That's all for now.

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